The international scientific community has made clear that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is critical to avoiding the most severe impacts of climate change. However, current policy trajectories and national pledges fall short of this target. Without more ambitious action, global temperatures could rise nearly 3 °C by the end of the century. To meet the Paris Agreement objectives, net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the energy sector must be achieved by around 2040. Many existing pathways depend on large-scale carbon removal technologies that are still uncertain or costly.
In this context, a new study published in Nature Communications outlines a practical, data-driven alternative: accelerating the global rollout of photovoltaic and wind power based on a spatiotemporal optimization model. The research, led by Fudan University and involving institutions such as CREAF-CSIC, shows how a coordinated global strategy could deploy over 22,000 solar and wind plants across 192 countries to supply up to 75% of global electricity by 2040—while substantially reducing the cost of emissions mitigation.
“Our model identifies how and where to build solar and wind power installations to minimize both costs and carbon emissions,” explains Dr. Yijing Wang, first author of the study. “With smart deployment and international cooperation, it is technically and economically feasible to achieve net-zero energy systems within the next two decades.” Continues Prof. Rong Wang, the leader of the Fudan University group
The researchers combined geospatial data on solar radiation and wind resources with information on land use, energy storage, transmission infrastructure, and material supply chains. The result is an optimized scenario that reduces the average cost of avoiding one tonne of CO₂ from $140 to just $33, compared to a baseline scenario. Importantly, this strategy does not rely on untested technologies, but instead focuses on accelerating the rollout of existing renewable energy sources.
The study emphasizes that such a transition would require a significant increase in investment and international coordination, particularly in terms of electricity grids and critical materials such as copper, silicon, and rare earth elements. However, the authors also estimate that global net costs could be reduced by up to $550 billion per year when countries collaborate on supply chains and power transmission.
According to Prof. Josep Peñuelas, co-author and researcher at CREAF-CSIC-UAB, “This work provides robust scientific evidence that achieving net-zero by 2040 is still possible. The challenge lies in aligning policies, financing, and infrastructure development to make this scenario a reality.”
In addition to environmental benefits, the transition to renewables could bring notable socioeconomic gains. The study estimates that global employment in the clean energy sector could nearly double by 2040, while access to electricity in developing countries would improve substantially. The findings underscore the importance of long-term planning, investment in energy storage, and efficient material use to support this transformation.
The authors conclude that while the barriers are considerable—technological, economic, and political—a globally optimized renewable energy strategy could provide a realistic and cost-effective pathway to meet international climate goals.
Reference
Wang, Y., Wang, R., Tanaka, K., Ciais, P., Peñuelas, J., et al. (2025). Global
spatiotemporal optimization of photovoltaic and wind power to achieve the Paris
Agreement targets. Nature Communications, 16:2127. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57292-w